Big Scalps

Chance that Nick Clegg will lose his seat in Sheffield Hallam: 42%

Chance that Nick Clegg will resign as leader of the Liberal Democrats: 71%

Chance that Danny Alexander will lose his seat in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey: 94%

Chance that David Cameron will resign as leader of the Conservatives: 68%

 

Chance that Nigel Farage will win Thanet: 45%

Chance that Nigel Farage will resign as leader of UKIP: 54%

 

Chance that Natalie Bennett will win Holborn and St Pancras: 4%

Chance that Natalie Bennett will resign as leader of the Greens: 15%

 

Chance that Douglas Alexander will lose Paisley and Renfrewshire South: 59%

 

Chance that Jim Murphy will lose East Renfrewshire: 55%

Chance that Jim Murphy will resign as leader of Scottish Labour: 52%

 

Overall Result

Chance that the Conservatives will win the most seats: 62%

Chance that Ed Miliband will be the next Prime Minister: 60%